TRIP.COM(09961) 华安证券·2024-11-23 03:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The report highlights that the company's Q3 2024 performance significantly exceeded expectations, driven by strong growth in international business [2] - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 reached 15.9 billion HKD, representing a year-over-year increase of 15.5%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations [2] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2024 was 6 billion HKD, up 21.7% year-over-year, and significantly higher than Bloomberg consensus expectations by 24.9% [2] - The report emphasizes that outbound and international business remain the main drivers of the company's performance growth, with international hotel and flight bookings surpassing 60% year-over-year growth [2] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2024 revenue by segment: - Accommodation booking revenue: 6.8 billion HKD (yoy +21.7%) - Transportation ticketing revenue: 5.7 billion HKD (yoy +5.3%) - Vacation business revenue: 1.6 billion HKD (yoy +17.3%) - Business travel management revenue: 660 million HKD (yoy +11.0%) - Other business revenue: 1.2 billion HKD (yoy +40.9%) [2] - The company expects revenues of 52.8 billion, 60.7 billion, and 69.3 billion HKD for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 18.4%, 15.1%, and 14.1% [4][6] - The projected adjusted net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 17.7 billion, 19.8 billion, and 23 billion HKD, respectively, with year-over-year growth rates of 35.7%, 11.4%, and 16.4% [4][6] Key Financial Metrics - Major financial indicators for 2023A, 2024E, 2025E, and 2026E: - Revenue: 44.6 billion, 52.8 billion, 60.7 billion, 69.3 billion HKD - Non-IFRS net profit: 13.1 billion, 17.7 billion, 19.8 billion, 23 billion HKD - Gross margin: 82% for 2024E and 2025E, 81% for 2026E - P/E ratio: 26.2 for 2023A, decreasing to 14.9 by 2026E [4][6]