策略周报：震荡上行逻辑仍在

Core Viewpoints - The market is expected to experience a short-term pressure due to a faster decline in expectations compared to the rise in policies and fundamentals, but the logic of a gradual upward trend remains intact [2][3] - The market is entering a phase of anticipation for macro policies in 2025, with a focus on economic work meetings as the year-end approaches [3][21] Market Overview - Recent data on real estate transactions, second-hand housing prices, and excavator sales indicate a point-wise recovery in domestic demand [3][21] - The market saw a mixed performance with cyclical and dividend sectors alternating in dominance, while external factors led to a market pullback on Friday [3][21] - The trend of active versus passive fund performance highlights the difficulty in obtaining quality alpha, with passive funds currently outperforming due to lower fees and higher positions [27][29] Industry Insights - The AI application sector is showing promising results, with companies like AppLovin reporting strong third-quarter performance, indicating a rapid commercialization of AI products [3][30] - The consumer electronics industry is experiencing a slow recovery, but the introduction of AI-driven products like AI glasses and headphones is expected to catalyze growth [30][31] Fund Flow and Sector Performance - The week saw a notable shift in fund flows, with defensive sectors like utilities, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals showing relative resilience amid profit-taking in consumer sectors [25][39] - The coal, banking, and light manufacturing sectors saw significant net inflows, while consumer services and food and beverage sectors faced notable pressure [39] Conclusion - The overall market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued upward movement despite short-term fluctuations, driven by macroeconomic policy anticipation and sector-specific developments [3][21][30]