TRIP.COM(09961) 广发证券·2024-11-25 03:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both the US-listed (TCOM) and Hong Kong-listed (09961 HK) shares of Trip com Group [5] Core Views - Trip com Group reported strong 3Q24 results with net revenue of RMB 15 9 billion (+16% YoY +32% QoQ) and non-GAAP net profit of RMB 6 billion (+22% YoY) [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0 3 percentage points YoY to 82 4% in 3Q24 [2] - Outbound travel recovery led the industry with overseas hotel and flight bookings reaching 120% of pre-pandemic levels in 2019 [3] - International OTA platform hotel and flight bookings grew over 60% YoY with APAC bookings up more than 70% [3] Business Segment Performance - Accommodation revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 6 8 billion in 3Q24 [2] - Transportation revenue increased 5% YoY to RMB 5 7 billion in 3Q24 [2] - Package tour revenue rose 17% YoY to RMB 1 6 billion in 3Q24 [2] - Corporate travel revenue grew 11% YoY to RMB 656 million in 3Q24 [2] Financial Projections - Non-GAAP net profit is forecasted to grow 32% 21% and 16% in 2024 2025 and 2026 respectively reaching RMB 24 2 billion by 2026 [3] - Revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15 7% from 2024 to 2026 reaching RMB 69 6 billion in 2026 [4] - The company plans to enhance shareholder returns in 2025 potentially combining share buybacks with dividends [3] Valuation - The report assigns a 16X PE multiple for 2025 valuing the US-listed shares at 524 87/share [3] Key Financial Metrics - ROE is projected to improve from 11 4% in 2024 to 12 0% in 2025-2026 [10] - Net margin is expected to remain stable at around 31 5% from 2024 to 2026 [10] - The company's cash position is forecasted to grow from RMB 43 4 billion in 2024 to RMB 76 5 billion in 2026 [8]