宏观周报：地缘风险持续升温，国内风险偏好回落

Group 1: Overseas Macro Insights - In November, the US Markit Manufacturing PMI recorded 48.8, meeting expectations but remaining below the expansion threshold for five consecutive months[3] - The US Services PMI for November reached 57.0, exceeding expectations and marking the highest level since March 2022[3] - The probability of a 15 basis point rate cut in December is estimated at 51%[1] Group 2: Domestic Economic Trends - Domestic real estate sales showed signs of cooling in November, while automotive consumption increased due to policy support[1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.91%, and the Shenzhen Component Index declined by 2.89%[8] - The 10-year government bond yield decreased to 2.08%, while the 30-year yield fell to 2.25%[1] Group 3: Market Performance - The A-share market saw a trading volume drop to 1.7 trillion yuan, indicating reduced risk appetite among investors[1] - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US rose to 6.9%, marking an increase for eight consecutive weeks[7] - The CRB Commodity Index increased by 3.64% over the past week, while the COMEX gold price rose to $2,718.20, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 31.20%[15]