Investment Rating - The report maintains an Outperform rating for JD Logistics (2618 HK) with a target price of HKD 23.19, revised from HKD 19.91, representing a 16% increase [3][10] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved RMB 44.40 billion in revenue in Q3 2024, a 6.6% YoY increase, with Non-IFRS net profit reaching RMB 2.60 billion, up 205.1% YoY [2][7] - The Non-IFRS net profit margin rose to 5.8%, a 3.8 percentage point increase from 2.0% in 2023 [2][7] - The company's integrated supply chain business contributed RMB 20.70 billion, a 5.4% YoY growth, driven by increased revenue from JD Group and external clients [2][8] - External integrated supply chain clients reached 57,900, a 9% YoY increase, with average revenue per client at RMB 133,000 [2][8] - Revenue from other clients grew 7.6% YoY to RMB 23.70 billion, primarily due to increased parcel volume in express delivery and freight business [2][8] Financial Performance - Gross profit margin improved to 11.7%, a 7.9 percentage point increase from Q3 2023, driven by product and network optimization, technology-driven efficiency, and refined resource management [3][9] - Operating costs were RMB 39.20 billion, up 2.2% YoY, reflecting effective cost control measures [3][9] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Total revenue for 2024 is projected to reach RMB 178.91 billion, a 7.4% YoY increase, with a Non-IFRS net profit margin of 4.3% [3][10] - The company's valuation method shifted from PS to PE as it entered a stable profit phase, with Non-IFRS net profit expected to be RMB 7.77 billion in 2024 and RMB 9.45 billion in 2025 [3][10] - The current market capitalization implies a 2024/2025 valuation of 11X/9X, with a reasonable valuation range of 15X, corresponding to the target price of HKD 23.19 [3][10]
京东物流：24Q3降本持续超预期，单季度利润率创历史新高