网易-S：Q3业绩触底、回购加速，拐点或临近

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a strong expectation of performance exceeding the market by over 20% [7][10]. Core Insights - The company's performance and valuation are at a low point, with expectations for a turning point approaching. The Q3 pipeline was weak, but Q4 is anticipated to show improvement with new game releases contributing positively [7]. - The company is expected to see revenue growth in 2025, driven by new game launches and a recovering gaming market. The adjusted revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 105.6 billion, 116.7 billion, and 122.6 billion respectively [7][9]. - Shareholder returns are expected to be attractive, with significant cash dividends and share buybacks accelerating. The total shareholder return for the year is projected to reach 2.61 billion USD, resulting in a return rate of 4.7% [8]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price is 133.60 HKD, with a market capitalization of 428.96 billion HKD. The stock has a 52-week high of 180.50 HKD and a low of 116.00 HKD [3]. Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 26.21 billion, a year-over-year decrease of 4%. The adjusted net profit was 7.50 billion, down 13% year-over-year [10]. - The company’s revenue and net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to reflect a more conservative outlook, with net profits expected to be 32.08 billion, 35.56 billion, and 37.91 billion respectively [9][10]. Game Segment Performance - The online gaming segment saw a slight decline, while the PC gaming segment experienced significant growth, with a 29% year-over-year increase in Q3 [12]. - The company is launching several new games, including "Fragpunk" and "Marvel: Secret Wars," which are expected to drive growth in 2025 [7]. Shareholder Returns - The company has accelerated its share buyback program, with Q3 buybacks totaling 500 million USD, contributing to a total of 9.6 billion USD in buybacks for the first three quarters of 2024 [8].