Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][51]. Core Insights - The company's Q3 revenue and profit showed a sequential decline, but a significant recovery is expected in Q4. The adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.8 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter [2][4][35]. - The new housing business continues to outperform the market, with a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing an 18% year-on-year increase [2][23]. - The company’s new track business is maintaining good growth momentum, with home decoration and rental services showing significant revenue increases [2][35]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a GTV of 736.8 billion yuan, a 12% increase year-on-year but a 12% decrease quarter-on-quarter. Revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][7]. - The adjusted net profit margin for Q3 2024 was 7.9%, with a gross margin of 23%, both showing a decline compared to previous periods [2][7]. Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business GTV was 477.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a 9% year-on-year increase but a 16% decrease quarter-on-quarter. Revenue from this segment was 6.2 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. - The new housing business's GTV market share increased to 12.0%, up 1.7 percentage points from Q2 2024, with a revenue of 7.7 billion yuan, reflecting a 31% year-on-year growth [2][23]. - The new track business accounted for 4% of GTV and 38% of revenue, with home decoration revenue growing by 33% year-on-year and rental service revenue increasing by 118% year-on-year [2][35]. Financial Forecasts - The report forecasts adjusted net profits of 9 billion yuan for 2024 and 9.2 billion yuan for 2025, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.50 yuan and 2.54 yuan, leading to a PE ratio of 18.3 and 18.0 respectively [2][4][35].
贝壳-W：23营收利润环比回落，新房业务持续跑赢市场