宏观2025年投资策略报告：重塑全球制造，再振中国内需

Group 1: Macro Economic Trends - The core contradiction in China's economy remains its internal demand, influenced by the balance of internal and external factors and the rhythm of the RMB exchange rate[2] - In 2024, the global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by five key themes: persistent inflation in the US, weak demand and policy expansion in China, pricing opportunities in upstream commodities driven by liquidity and geopolitical factors, global manufacturing supply chain restructuring, and the continued strength of the US dollar[3] - The US MAGA (Make America Great Again) policy framework has been effectively implemented for nearly a decade, regardless of the political party in power[5] Group 2: US Economic Policies - The MAGA policy aims to bring high-end manufacturing back to the US, strengthen technological leadership, and restructure the global supply chain for low-end manufacturing[9] - The Biden administration's MAGA framework has led to significant private sector investment and persistent core inflation, with technology stocks outperforming expectations[12] - The US economy is expected to face uncertainties in 2025, including downstream inflation, monetary policy direction, and fiscal policy pressures due to high government debt levels[15][18] Group 3: China's Economic Recovery - China's economic recovery is expected to follow three stages: liquidity easing, recovery of the real estate sector, and guiding capacity clearance to restore asset prices[22] - The current weak internal demand in China is not solely due to insufficient policy support but is also a result of a necessary transition in the real estate sector from financial products to consumer goods[11] - The probability of a strong stimulus similar to the 2008 four trillion yuan package is low, given the significant differences in the current economic fundamentals[12] Group 4: Global Commodity and Market Outlook - The global commodity market is influenced by geopolitical factors and liquidity expectations, with gold prices rising over 30% this year due to high inflation expectations and geopolitical tensions[84] - The restructuring of global manufacturing supply chains is evident, with China's machinery exports growing by 9.4% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the overall export growth rate of 4.6%[96] - The outlook for major asset classes in 2025 suggests that US stocks and bonds will be heavily influenced by monetary policy, while China's stock market may benefit from liquidity-driven trading opportunities[24]