Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [4][51]. Core Views - The company's Q3 revenue and profit showed a sequential decline, but a significant recovery is expected in Q4 due to policy influences [2][35]. - The new housing business continues to outperform the market, with a GTV market share increase and a record high monetization rate [2][23]. - The existing housing business performance aligns with real estate policy trends, with expectations for a notable rebound in Q4 [2][9]. Revenue and Profit Summary - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a GTV of 736.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 12%. Revenue was 22.6 billion yuan, up 27% year-on-year but down 3% quarter-on-quarter [2][7]. - Adjusted net profit for Q3 2024 was 1.8 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year and 34% quarter-on-quarter, with an adjusted net profit margin of 7.9% [2][7]. Business Segment Performance - The existing housing business had a GTV of 477.8 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 9% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16%. Revenue was 6.2 billion yuan, down 1% year-on-year and 15% quarter-on-quarter [2][9]. - The new housing business achieved a GTV of 227.6 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 18% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 3%, with a market share of 12.0% [2][23]. - The new business segment showed strong growth, with home decoration and rental services contributing significantly to revenue [2][35]. Financial Forecasts - The company expects adjusted net profits of 9 billion yuan and 9.2 billion yuan for 2024 and 2025, respectively, with corresponding earnings per share of 2.50 yuan and 2.54 yuan [2][35]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected at 18.3 for 2024 and 18.0 for 2025 [2][35].
贝壳-W：Q3营收利润环比回落，新房业务持续跑赢市场