Winner Medical(300888) 广发证券·2024-11-27 13:27Investment Rating and Valuation - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 33.84 yuan and a fair value of 41.62 yuan [1][2][3] - The stock has shown significant growth over the past 3 and 6 months with increases of 44.44% and 17.71% respectively [6] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2024E is projected at 9,031 million yuan, a 10.3% increase from 2023A, with further growth expected to reach 12,635 million yuan by 2026E [6] - EBITDA is forecasted to grow from 1,348 million yuan in 2023A to 2,131 million yuan by 2026E, indicating strong operational efficiency improvements [6] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 580 million yuan in 2023A to 1,224 million yuan by 2026E, reflecting a robust recovery and growth trajectory [6] Business Segments and Market Position - The company operates through two main brands: "Winner" for medical products and "Purcotton" for consumer goods, leveraging cotton as a core material [47] - Medical segment revenue accounted for 43.8% of total revenue in 2024Q1-3, with consumer goods contributing 55.4%, showing a balanced business model [7] - The company has expanded its medical product line through acquisitions, enhancing its market position in high-end wound care and surgical products [49] Strategic Initiatives and Growth Drivers - A new equity incentive plan has been introduced, aiming to align management interests with long-term growth targets, with performance triggers set at 13% and 18% revenue growth for 2025 and 2026 [7] - The company is focusing on both organic growth and strategic acquisitions to strengthen its market position and expand its product offerings [49] Industry Analysis and Competitive Landscape - The domestic medical consumables market is large and growing, with a CAGR of 16.10% from 2015 to 2023, expected to reach 3,633 billion yuan by 2025 [94] - Low-value medical consumables, which the company specializes in, are projected to grow at a CAGR of 19.49%, reaching 2,213 billion yuan by 2025, indicating significant market potential [94] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and the shift towards higher-value medical products, supported by its strong R&D capabilities and international certifications [110]