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基础化工行业周报:工业硅盈利底部见供给反抗,生物柴油船燃领域再迎利好
德邦证券·2024-12-02 00:23

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is transitioning from oversupply to supply resistance, with a focus on supply-side policy efforts. The demand for industrial silicon is primarily driven by polysilicon, which has seen a significant price drop due to slowing photovoltaic installation growth and declining silicon prices. This has led to reduced production and maintenance measures by several companies, impacting industrial silicon demand. In contrast, the supply side is expected to see a substantial increase in domestic industrial silicon production in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 31.6% to 3.977 million tons from January to October 2023. The recent production cuts by major companies may provide a crucial opportunity to improve the supply-demand balance [7][8]. - The use of biodiesel in shipping is gaining traction, supported by policies in Zhejiang province aimed at expanding market opportunities. The International Maritime Organization reported that biodiesel bunkering reached approximately 390,000 tons in 2023, a nearly 70% increase from 2022. The new policies may lower costs for international shipping companies in China and enhance the operational efficiency of domestic biodiesel refining companies [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is experiencing a shift from oversupply to supply resistance, with significant production cuts expected to improve market conditions [7]. - Biodiesel adoption in shipping is supported by new policies, indicating a growing market potential [8]. 2. Overall Performance of the Chemical Sector - The basic chemical industry index increased by 1.5% in the week of November 22-29, 2023, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index [36]. 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 426 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 323 stocks rose while 102 fell during the reporting week, with notable gainers including Nanjing Chemical Fiber (+61.1%) and Jiaao Environmental Protection (+37.5%) [44]. 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Industrial silicon production is decreasing in the southwest region due to seasonal factors, with significant production cuts announced by major companies [49].