2025年宏观经济与政策展望：踏浪前行，如日之升

Economic Growth and Policy Outlook - China's GDP growth target for 2025 is around 5%, driven by policy support and domestic demand, with potential external shocks from Trump's policies[7] - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 8% in 2025, supported by domestic and international restocking and policy incentives[20] - Infrastructure investment is projected to grow by 9% in 2025, fueled by increased issuance of special bonds and local government bonds[31] Real Estate and Investment Trends - Real estate investment growth is expected to converge to -3% in 2025, with policy support reducing its drag on economic growth[44] - Land transaction activity has increased significantly since September 2024, with land premium rates around 4%[43] Consumption and Inflation - Social retail sales growth is expected to rebound to 5% in 2025, driven by policy support for consumption and service sectors[55] - CPI growth is forecasted to rise to 1-1.5% in 2025, with food prices stabilizing and non-food prices remaining weak[72] Trade and External Factors - Export growth is expected to be around 3% in 2025, with a potential boost from preemptive exports before new tariffs take effect[82] - Import growth is projected to reach 2% in 2025, supported by domestic demand recovery and lower base effects[85] Industrial and Technological Shifts - The shift of industries to western China is accelerating, with a focus on strategic emerging industries like new energy and electronics[4] - New infrastructure investment, particularly in digital and AI sectors, is expected to grow significantly in 2025[35]