Lens(300433) 长江证券·2024-12-03 02:46Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lens Technology (300433 SZ) [5] Core Viewpoints - Lens Technology, as a leading Apple supply chain company for exterior components, is expected to benefit significantly from the recent consumer electronics subsidy policies in Jiangsu Province, which could boost sales of high-end smartphones like the iPhone [2][5] - The upcoming release of iOS 18 2 in early December, along with the introduction of more Apple Intelligence features, is anticipated to further enhance iPhone sales, particularly in China [2][5] - Historical data shows that subsidy policies, such as those implemented during 2007-2013 for home appliances, have significantly boosted sales, with products like air conditioners and TVs experiencing a CAGR of 16 03% and 5 98% respectively during that period [5] - The combination of consumer electronics subsidies and the rollout of Apple Intelligence features is expected to improve iPhone sales in China, which have been under pressure due to limited innovation and high prices [6] - Lens Technology is positioned to benefit from the upcoming innovation cycle in smartphones, particularly with the expected release of iPhone 17, which will drive upgrades in various components such as frames, glass, cooling systems, and batteries [7] Financial Projections - Lens Technology is projected to achieve net profits attributable to the parent company of 4 121 billion yuan, 6 024 billion yuan, and 8 263 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [7] - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 54 491 billion yuan in 2024 to 107 889 billion yuan in 2026, with gross margins improving from 17% to 19% over the same period [16] - Operating cash flow is forecasted to increase from 9 300 billion yuan in 2024 to 15 995 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [16] Market Performance - The current stock price of Lens Technology is 20 65 yuan, with a 12-month high of 24 81 yuan and a low of 9 77 yuan [8] - The company's market performance over the past 12 months has shown significant volatility, with a notable increase in the latter half of 2024 [10] Industry Context - The consumer electronics industry is entering a new innovation cycle, with AI features and advancements in exterior components driving growth [7] - Lens Technology has diversified its business into new areas such as new energy vehicles, smartwatches, smart headsets, and smart payment systems, all of which are contributing to its growth momentum [7]