BYD(01211) 第一上海证券·2024-12-03 05:54Investment Rating - Buy rating with a target price of HKD 328.3, representing a 29.44% upside from the current price [1] Core Views - Q3 2024 results met expectations with revenue of RMB 502.2 billion (+18.9% YoY) and net profit of RMB 25.2 billion (+18.1% YoY) [1] - Q3 gross margin improved to 21.9%, up 3.2 percentage points QoQ, driven by economies of scale in NEV sales [1] - November NEV sales reached 504,000 units (+67% YoY, +1% MoM), with DM5.0 models driving strong PHEV sales of 306,000 units (+133% YoY) [1] - Full-year 2024 NEV sales expected to exceed 4.1 million units, supported by strong DM5.0 model sales and government subsidies [1] - 2025 is expected to be a breakthrough year for BEV models with new platform launches, further boosting profitability [1] Financial Performance Revenue & Profitability - Q3 revenue reached RMB 201.1 billion (+14.2% QoQ), with net profit of RMB 11.6 billion (+28% QoQ) [1] - Auto business revenue in Q3 was RMB 157.58 billion (+18% QoQ), with gross margin improving to 26% (+4 ppts QoQ) [1] - 2024-2026 revenue forecast at RMB 780.1/953.3/1,130.6 billion, with net profit of RMB 37.5/45.8/55.9 billion [2][4] - Gross margin expected to improve from 20.2% in 2023 to 22.6% by 2026 [4] Vehicle Sales & Profitability - YTD November 2024 sales reached 3.74 million units (+40% YoY), with premium brands (Denza, Fang Cheng Bao, Yangwang) contributing 163,000 units (+39.4% YoY) [1] - Q3 vehicle ASP increased to RMB 139,500 (+RMB 3,000 QoQ) due to higher-priced DM5.0 models [1] - Q3 vehicle profit per unit rose to RMB 9,400 (+RMB 8,000 QoQ), expected to remain stable in Q4 [1] International Expansion - November overseas sales reached 31,000 units, with YTD exports at 360,000 units (+74% YoY) [1] Valuation & Forecast - 2025 target valuation of HKD 888.1 billion based on 20x PE for auto business and 15x PE for electronics [1] - 2024-2026 EPS forecast at RMB 12.87/15.74/19.20, with P/E ratios of 18.3x/15.0x/12.3x [2][4] - Dividend yield expected to increase from 1% in 2023 to 2% by 2026 [2]