CHINA GAS HOLD(00384) 东吴证券·2024-12-03 06:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a decrease in revenue and net profit for the first half of FY2025, with total revenue at HKD 35.734 billion, down 2.70% year-on-year, and net profit at HKD 1.761 billion, down 3.81% year-on-year. The company aims to maintain a dividend of HKD 0.5 per share for the full year, corresponding to a dividend yield of 8.0% [2] - Retail gas volume growth was below expectations, but segment profits showed steady growth. The company adjusted its retail gas volume growth target for the year from +5% to +2% due to lower-than-expected sales [2] - The company is experiencing a gradual price adjustment in its city gas projects, with a price difference increase of 0.29 RMB per cubic meter, and 62% of residential gas volume has achieved price alignment [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY2023A, total revenue was HKD 92.423 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 4.31%. For FY2024A, revenue is projected to decrease to HKD 81.863 billion, a decline of 11.43%. The net profit for FY2023A was HKD 4.293 billion, down 43.96% year-on-year, while FY2024A is expected to further decline to HKD 3.185 billion, a decrease of 25.82% [1][2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for FY2023A was HKD 0.79, projected to decrease to HKD 0.59 for FY2024A, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.89 for FY2023A and 10.64 for FY2024A [1][2] Segment Performance - The natural gas sales segment saw a profit increase of 6.28% to HKD 1.658 billion, while the connection business segment's profit rose by 13.45% to HKD 0.521 billion. The engineering design and construction segment experienced a significant profit increase of 36.25% to HKD 0.349 billion [2] - The LPG sales segment's profit plummeted by 98.96% to HKD 0.02 billion due to various market factors, while the value-added services segment's profit increased by 15.37% to HKD 1.002 billion [2] Future Outlook - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2025 to HKD 3.955 billion, down from the previous estimate of HKD 4.017 billion, with expected growth rates of 24%, 12%, and 10% for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 respectively [2] - The P/E ratios for FY2025, FY2026, and FY2027 are projected to be 8.56, 7.64, and 6.96 respectively [2]