周大福：FY25H1毛利率高增，持续聚焦品牌升级

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company with a current price of 7.13 HKD and a fair value of 8.06 HKD [2]. Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue for FY25H1, with a total of 27.9 billion HKD, down 20.4% year-on-year, primarily due to significant fluctuations in gold prices leading to losses from gold lending contracts [2][4]. - The adjusted gross profit margin improved to 31.4%, an increase of 6.5 percentage points year-on-year, driven by a doubling in the contribution from product retail value and a 14.2% increase in average selling prices [2][4]. - The company plans to utilize up to 20 billion HKD of internal resources for share buybacks and has declared an interim dividend of 0.2 HKD per share [2][4]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY25, the company expects net profits of 5.4 billion HKD, 6.5 billion HKD, and 5.4 billion HKD for the fiscal years 2025 to 2027, respectively [2][4]. - The main revenue for 2023 was 94.684 billion HKD, with a projected growth rate of -4.3% for 2024, followed by a recovery of 14.8% in 2025 [4]. - The EBITDA for 2023 was 9.67 billion HKD, with projections of 11.207 billion HKD for 2024 and 10.112 billion HKD for 2025 [4]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 16.5% in 2023, increasing to 24.7% in 2024, before stabilizing around 16.8% in the following years [4].