美国11月非农就业点评：市场为何对非农反弹选择“视而不见”

Employment Data - In November 2024, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000, with the previous month's figure revised from 12,000 to 36,000[1] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, matching expectations, while the labor force participation rate fell to 62.5%, below the expected 67.7% and October's 62.6%[1] - Average hourly earnings year-on-year growth remained at 4.0%, above the expected 3.9%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, surpassing the expected 0.3%[1] Market Reactions - Despite the strong non-farm payrolls data, the market chose to overlook it due to mixed signals from the data, particularly the continued weakness in household survey results[2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 89% from 73.3% prior to the data release, reflecting market sentiment towards the weakening household survey data driving the Fed's decision[4] - Following the non-farm employment data release, U.S. stocks rose, and bond yields fell, indicating a market response favoring rate cuts[4] Structural Employment Insights - The goods sector saw a rebound with 22,000 jobs added in manufacturing, primarily due to the end of the Boeing strike, while the service sector added 162,000 jobs, including a recovery of 53,000 in leisure and hospitality[2] - The household survey indicated a decline in the labor force population by 193,000, continuing a trend from the previous month, with the unemployment population increasing by 160,000, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.25%[3] - Wage growth remains resilient, with average hourly earnings showing stability, which may support consumer spending but could limit further inflation reduction[3]