PDH(600048) 开源证券·2024-12-09 14:23Investment Rating - Investment rating: Buy (maintained) [3] Core Views - The land acquisition market is active, with first-tier cities accounting for 70% of the land acquisition amount [3] - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 132.0 billion, 141.9 billion, and 151.0 billion for 2024-2026, with corresponding EPS of 1.10, 1.19, and 1.26, respectively [3] - The company remains the industry leader in sales, despite a year-on-year decline in sales amount and area [3] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue (million): 2022A: 281,017; 2023A: 346,828; 2024E: 383,164; 2025E: 403,876; 2026E: 416,698 [3] - Net profit (million): 2022A: 18,320; 2023A: 12,067; 2024E: 13,164; 2025E: 14,185; 2026E: 15,104 [3] - Gross margin (%): 2022A: 22.0; 2023A: 16.0; 2024E: 16.2; 2025E: 16.8; 2026E: 17.3 [3] - Net margin (%): 2022A: 6.5; 2023A: 3.5; 2024E: 3.4; 2025E: 3.5; 2026E: 3.6 [3] - ROE (%): 2022A: 8.4; 2023A: 5.3; 2024E: 5.5; 2025E: 5.8; 2026E: 6.0 [3] - EPS (diluted / yuan): 2022A: 1.53; 2023A: 1.01; 2024E: 1.10; 2025E: 1.19; 2026E: 1.26 [3] - P/E (times): 2022A: 6.4; 2023A: 9.8; 2024E: 9.0; 2025E: 8.3; 2026E: 7.8 [3] - P/B (times): 2022A: 0.6; 2023A: 0.6; 2024E: 0.6; 2025E: 0.6; 2026E: 0.5 [3]