城市燃气行业2025年投资策略：行业回暖稳增长，毛差提升高分红

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive investment outlook for the urban gas industry, highlighting stable growth and improved profit margins, along with high dividend payouts [1]. Core Insights - The urban gas industry is experiencing a recovery with a significant increase in natural gas demand, driven by a favorable supply-demand structure [3][11]. - The implementation of a pricing mechanism has led to a continuous improvement in profit margins for gas companies [34]. - The profitability model of the industry remains stable, with dividends showing a consistent upward trend [46][50]. - The industry is undergoing significant consolidation, with leading companies gaining clear advantages [55][58]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with regional integration advantages and potential for increased dividend payouts, specifically China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy [63][64]. Summary by Sections 1. Natural Gas Demand Recovery - In 2023, China's apparent natural gas consumption reached 394.53 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%. For 2024, consumption is projected to be between 420 billion and 425 billion cubic meters, reflecting a growth of 6.5% to 7.7% [3][4]. - The share of natural gas in primary energy consumption has risen from 2.3% in 2004 to 8.6% in 2023, with industrial fuel and urban gas being the largest consumers [6][7]. 2. Pricing Mechanism Advancement - The establishment of a price linkage mechanism has improved the purchase-sale price gap for gas companies, alleviating previous issues of cost overruns [34][38]. - The average adjustment in residential gas prices has been approximately 0.257 yuan per cubic meter, with increases ranging from 5% to 10% [34]. 3. Stable Profitability Model - The approved return on gas distribution is set at 7%, ensuring reasonable returns for gas companies [43]. - Major gas companies have shown a steady increase in dividend payout ratios, with China Resources Gas increasing its dividend per share from 0.45 HKD in 2016 to 1.1569 HKD in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 14.4% [50][64]. 4. Industry Consolidation - The report notes a trend towards consolidation in the urban gas sector, with policies promoting mergers and acquisitions to streamline operations [55][58]. - Leading gas companies now account for 33% of the national natural gas consumption, indicating a stable competitive landscape [58][59]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on China Resources Gas and Kunlun Energy due to their strong market positions and potential for dividend growth [63][64].