ASML Holding(ASML) 第一上海证券·2024-12-11 10:04Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on ASML, with a slight adjustment in the shipment guidance for EUV lithography machines in 2025 [2]. Core Insights - ASML's Q3 revenue reached €7.47 billion, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, slightly exceeding the company's guidance of €6.7-7.3 billion and Bloomberg consensus of €7.2 billion [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 50.8%, down 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, aligning with the company's guidance of 50%-51% [2]. - Net profit for the quarter was €2.08 billion, a 9.7% increase year-on-year, with an operating profit margin of 32.7% [2]. - The EPS was €5.28, surpassing Bloomberg consensus of €4.88 [2]. - New orders for the quarter totaled €2.6 billion, significantly below market expectations of €5.4 billion, with logic and storage accounting for 46% and 54% respectively [2]. - The backlog stood at €36 billion, a decrease of €3 billion quarter-on-quarter [2]. - The company declared a dividend of €1.52 per share for Q3 [2]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the fiscal year ending December 31 is projected to be €27.56 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 30.16% [4]. - Net profit is expected to be €7.84 billion, with a slight decrease in EPS forecasted for 2025 at €19.2 [4]. - The estimated P/E ratio based on a share price of 1 trillion by 2030 [2]. - For Q4 2024, the net sales guidance is set at €8.8-9.2 billion, aligning with Bloomberg consensus of €9 billion [2].