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汇量科技：算法持续更新迭代，带动业绩亮眼增长
01860MOBVISTA(01860) 国证国际证券·2024-12-12 03:26

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Mobvista (1860 HK) with a 6-month target price of HKD 12 8 [1][4] Core Views - Mobvista's Q3 2024 revenue reached 416million,a546416 million, a 54 6% YoY increase, with adjusted net profit of 11 million, up 162 4% YoY [1] - The company's programmatic advertising platform, Mintegral, contributed 402millioninrevenue,a576402 million in revenue, a 57 6% YoY increase, driven by its smart bidding capabilities and expansion into new verticals [2] - Mintegral's game category revenue grew 46 5% YoY to 295 million, accounting for 73 2% of its total revenue, while non-game categories surged 98 5% YoY to 108million,withe−commercebeingakeydriver[2]−Thecompany′sgrossmarginimprovedby05ppYoYto211108 million, with e-commerce being a key driver [2] - The company's gross margin improved by 0 5pp YoY to 21 1%, supported by a 0 9pp increase in ad tech gross margin to 20 6% [2] - Mobvista has achieved consecutive quarters of profitability since Q4 2022, demonstrating strong scale effects [2] Financial and Valuation Summary - Revenue is expected to grow from 894 4 million in 2024E to 2,0849millionin2026E,withaCAGRof2392,084 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 23 9% [3] - Adjusted net profit is projected to increase from 9 7 million in 2024E to 829millionin2026E,withaCAGRof71482 9 million in 2026E, with a CAGR of 71 4% [3] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 0 02 in 2024E to 005in2026E[3]−Thecompany′sP/Eratioisexpectedtodeclinefrom493xin2024Eto222xin2026E,reflectingstrongearningsgrowth[3]BusinessPerformanceandStrategy−Mintegral′ssmartbiddingsystemhasgainedmarketvalidation,withROAS(ReturnonAdSpend)becomingamainstreamchoicefordevelopers[2]−Theplatformhasexpandedintomid−to−hardcoregamesandnon−gameverticalssuchase−commerceandsocial,drivingdiversification[2]−Non−programmaticadrevenuedeclinedslightlyby050 05 in 2026E [3] - The company's P/E ratio is expected to decline from 49 3x in 2024E to 22 2x in 2026E, reflecting strong earnings growth [3] Business Performance and Strategy - Mintegral's smart bidding system has gained market validation, with ROAS (Return on Ad Spend) becoming a mainstream choice for developers [2] - The platform has expanded into mid-to-hardcore games and non-game verticals such as e-commerce and social, driving diversification [2] - Non-programmatic ad revenue declined slightly by 0 5% YoY to 9 94 million, while marketing tech revenue grew 1% YoY to $4 million, supported by overseas expansion and cost optimization [2] Financial Metrics - Gross margin for ad tech improved to 20 6%, while marketing tech gross margin declined by 13 5pp to 68 9% [2] - Sales expenses increased by 32 7% YoY due to rising bidding costs, and R&D expenses surged 59 7% YoY due to investments in the smart bidding system [2] - The company's ROE is expected to rise from 7 6% in 2024E to 13 0% in 2026E, reflecting improved profitability [10]