天山铝业：一体化布局构筑低成本护城河，深度受益铝价上涨

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, citing its vertical integration and low-cost competitive advantages [4][10] Core Investment Thesis - The company has a deep vertical integration strategy, forming a complete aluminum industry chain from bauxite to alumina, electrolytic aluminum, high-purity aluminum, and aluminum foil production, supported by self-owned power plants and prebaked anode facilities [4][24] - Three major cost advantages: low-cost electricity, self-sufficiency in alumina (bauxite), and low-cost prebaked anodes, which together account for 90% of electrolytic aluminum production costs [4][46] - The company benefits from rising aluminum prices, with electrolytic aluminum demand expected to exceed 4500 million tons by 2025, potentially leading to a supply shortage and upward price pressure [5][61] Cost Advantages - Electricity: The company owns 6 self-owned power generation units with an annual utilization of 6200 hours, meeting 80-90% of its electrolytic aluminum production needs. The average electricity cost is 0.22 RMB/kWh, significantly lower than the industry average of 0.41 RMB/kWh [4][50] - Alumina (Bauxite): The company has 250 million tons/year of alumina capacity in Guangxi and is building 200 million tons/year in Indonesia. It also owns bauxite mining rights in Indonesia and Guinea, ensuring self-sufficiency in bauxite supply [4][30][52] - Prebaked Anodes: The company has 600,000 tons/year of prebaked anode capacity in Xinjiang, benefiting from low-cost petroleum coke and natural gas prices in the region [5][58] Market Demand and Price Trends - Electrolytic aluminum demand reached 41.09 million tons by November 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. Demand is expected to grow by 5% in 2025, potentially exceeding the 45 million tons capacity ceiling, leading to a sustained upward trend in aluminum prices [5][61] - The company is expected to benefit from rising aluminum prices, with electrolytic aluminum prices forecasted to increase from 20,000 RMB/ton in 2024 to 22,000 RMB/ton in 2026 [11][66] Financial Projections - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 4.116 billion RMB in 2024, 4.806 billion RMB in 2025, and 5.494 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.54X, 8.17X, and 7.15X, respectively [10][71] - Revenue is expected to grow from 28.305 billion RMB in 2024 to 34.613 billion RMB in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.01% [7][70] Industry and Competitive Positioning - The company's vertical integration and low-cost advantages position it as a strong competitor in the aluminum industry, with a focus on self-sufficiency in key raw materials and energy [4][24] - Compared to industry peers, the company's P/E ratios are lower than the industry average, indicating potential undervaluation [10][71]