HBYH(000422) 国信证券·2024-12-12 10:26Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hubei Yihua is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][10]. Core Views - The company is acquiring 100% equity of Yichang Xinfatong from Yihua Group for 3.2 billion yuan, which will enhance its profitability and integrate its industrial chain [2][3]. - Post-acquisition, the company will increase its stake in Xinjiang Yihua from 35.597% to 75%, expanding its business scope to include coal production alongside fertilizers and chemical products [2][3]. - The acquisition is expected to add significant production capacity, including 600,000 tons of urea, 300,000 tons of PVC, 250,000 tons of caustic soda, and 30 million tons of coal annually [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to increase to 183 billion yuan in 2024, 270 billion yuan in 2025, and 274 billion yuan in 2026, up from previous estimates of 183 billion yuan, 181 billion yuan, and 184 billion yuan respectively [10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise to 10.21 billion yuan in 2024, 16.06 billion yuan in 2025, and 18.27 billion yuan in 2026, compared to earlier forecasts of 10.94 billion yuan, 11.86 billion yuan, and 14.15 billion yuan [10]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.96 yuan, 1.52 yuan, and 1.73 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10]. Production Capacity - Before the acquisition, the company had production capacities of 1.56 million tons/year for urea, 840,000 tons/year for PVC, 680,000 tons/year for caustic soda, and 1.26 million tons/year for diammonium phosphate [2][3]. - After the acquisition, the total production capacity will include an additional 600,000 tons of urea, 300,000 tons of PVC, 250,000 tons of caustic soda, and 30 million tons of coal [2][3]. Strategic Outlook - The acquisition is expected to enhance the company's profitability by approximately 4.8 billion yuan based on the recent performance of Xinjiang Yihua [7]. - Yihua Group has committed to a profit guarantee of no less than 30.58 billion yuan for Xinjiang Yihua over the next three years, with cash compensation in case of underperformance [7]. - The integration of coal resources is anticipated to provide long-term growth potential for the company [3].