美国11月CPI点评：通胀合预期，市场押注12月降息几成定局

Inflation Data - The US CPI for November 2024 increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching expectations and slightly up from 2.6% in October[1] - Month-on-month, the CPI rose by 0.3%, consistent with expectations and up from 0.2% in October[1] - Core CPI also remained stable at 3.3% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, aligning with forecasts[1] Market Expectations - Following the CPI release, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose to 94.1%, up from 92.3% prior to the data release[2] - The market is also pricing in 2-3 rate cuts for the entire year of 2025[2] Key Components of Inflation - Housing inflation has shown signs of stabilizing, with significant declines in rent and owner-equivalent rent month-on-month, indicating potential for a rebound in the coming months[1] - Commodity prices have rebounded, primarily driven by increases in new and used car prices, influenced by supply chain disruptions from recent natural disasters and port strikes[2] Federal Reserve Outlook - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting on December 19, 2024, will be crucial for economic forecasts, with expectations of potential adjustments to growth and inflation projections for 2025[3] - Analysts anticipate that the Fed may lower its economic growth forecast for 2025 and increase unemployment rate expectations, while also adjusting the number of anticipated rate cuts down to three[3] Policy Implications - The combination of tightening immigration policies and fiscal measures may lead to a contractionary economic environment, potentially limiting inflationary pressures[4] - The Fed's policy space is expected to remain relatively wide in the first half of 2025, allowing for continued rate cuts unless significant external shocks occur[4]