美国消费回顾及美股消费ETF分享

Group 1: Market Overview - The US consumer sector has seen an overall increase of 16% in 2024, underperforming the S&P 500 index which rose by 28%[5] - The retail sector, particularly daily consumer goods and tobacco, outperformed the S&P 500 with increases of 45% and 32% respectively[11] - Inflation remains high, but consumer companies are gradually raising prices, leading to a recovery in profits[5] Group 2: Consumer Macro Trends - Despite a slowdown in consumer growth, the underlying consumer base remains robust, with CPI showing positive growth and per capita income increasing healthily[18] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 74 in December, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[20] - Disposable income grew by 4.6% year-on-year in October, supporting future consumption growth[23] Group 3: Retail Sales Performance - Total retail and food service sales in October reached $718.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8%[26] - Online retail sales grew by 7% in October, maintaining a strong growth trend throughout the year[26] - Sales at gas stations have declined sharply, primarily due to falling oil prices, impacting overall retail performance[26] Group 4: ETF Recommendation - The XLP ETF, which tracks leading companies in the daily consumer goods sector, has doubled in value over the past decade, achieving an annualized return of 8%[31] - The current PE-TTM for the XLP index is 26.2x, indicating a relatively high valuation compared to historical levels[39] - The top holdings in XLP include Procter & Gamble, Costco, and Walmart, which dominate their respective markets[36]