Winner Medical(300888) 国信证券·2024-12-13 01:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1][4]. Core Views - The company's consumer goods business is expected to accelerate growth due to enhanced marketing efforts and industry events. Sales growth for the core categories of cotton soft towels and sanitary napkins exceeded 30% in October and November 2024 [3][4]. - The medical segment has returned to normalized growth as the high base effect from pandemic-related products has diminished. The acquisition of GRI is expected to enhance overseas capacity and channel expansion [3][4]. - The company has adjusted its revenue growth forecasts for the consumer business for Q4 2024 and 2025, anticipating a compound annual growth rate of 39.4% for 2024, 31.1% for 2025, and 15.4% for 2026 [4][36]. Summary by Sections Consumer Segment - The company focuses on 100% cotton products, which have seen rapid sales growth. The cotton soft towel category has maintained high growth rates, with online sales increasing by 37% in October and November [5][6]. - The sanitary napkin brand "Nais Princess" has performed well amid negative events in the industry, with online sales growth accelerating to 35% in the same period [17][18]. - The company plans to open approximately 100 new stores annually, focusing on optimizing product categories and improving store efficiency [4][28]. Medical Segment - The medical business has seen a return to double-digit growth, with a 13.1% increase in revenue in Q3 2024. The acquisition of GRI is expected to contribute positively to earnings [30][31]. - The company aims to leverage synergies from the GRI acquisition to enhance production, sales networks, and product offerings [30][31]. Financial Projections - The company has revised its profit forecasts upward, expecting net profits of 8.1 billion, 10.6 billion, and 12.2 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][36]. - The target price has been adjusted to 43-47 yuan, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 24-26x for 2025 [4][36].