IPO点评报告：小菜园

Company Overview - Xiaocaiyuan is a cost-effective Chinese restaurant chain with an average customer spending below RMB 100 [1] - Revenue for 2022, 2023, and the first eight months of 2024 were RMB 3.21 billion, RMB 4.55 billion, and RMB 3.54 billion, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 21.5%, 41.5%, and 15.3% [1] - Net profits for the same periods were RMB 240 million, RMB 530 million, and RMB 400 million, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.6%, 124%, and 1.3% [1] - The company has experienced rapid store expansion, growing from 379 stores at the end of 2021 to 636 stores by August 2024, a 67% increase [1] - Stores are concentrated in Jiangsu (259 stores) and Anhui (136 stores), with 69 stores in Shanghai and 62 in Zhejiang [1] - The average customer spending in 2024 was RMB 59.5, down 10% from RMB 66.1 in 2021 [1] - Same-store sales declined by 11.4% in the first eight months of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, attributed to high base effects and reduced foot traffic [1] - Delivery accounted for 36.8% of revenue in the first eight months of 2024, up from 15% in 2021 [1] Industry Overview - The Chinese catering industry reached a scale of RMB 5.2 trillion in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.4% from 2018 to 2023 [2] - The mass market (average customer spending below RMB 100) accounts for approximately 88% of the Chinese catering market [2] - The industry's chain rate is 19.2%, with potential for further penetration [2] - The industry is highly fragmented, with Xiaocaiyuan holding a 0.2% market share in the RMB 50-100 customer spending segment, ranking first [2] Strengths and Opportunities - Xiaocaiyuan's brand positioning emphasizes high cost-effectiveness, offering a "delicious and affordable" dining experience [3] - The company has a standardized operational model, including standardized dishes, services, training, and food safety protocols [3] - It has a strong supply chain management system, featuring a self-built cold chain logistics network and centralized procurement [3] - The company maintains a robust financial position, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 3.7% and a current ratio of 1.8 as of August 2024 [3] Weaknesses and Challenges - The low entry barrier in the catering industry leads to intense competition, requiring continuous operational efficiency [4] - Consumer loyalty is low, necessitating frequent menu and store environment updates [4] - Store performance heavily depends on location selection, which carries inherent risks [4] Investment Recommendation - The IPO price is set at HKD 8.5, with a post-IPO market capitalization of approximately HKD 10 billion (excluding over-allotment) [5] - The trailing twelve-month (TTM) price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is 18.6x, considered relatively undervalued historically [5] - The IPO is assigned a rating of "5.7" [5]