航空新周期系列点评之一：国内航空运力供给未来3年相对稳态，2024年全国民航客运量有望超7亿人次

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][20]. Core Viewpoints - The civil aviation fleet in China has grown from 204 aircraft in 1990 to 4,270 in 2023, achieving over 20 times growth in more than 30 years. However, the growth rate has slowed post-pandemic, with an average fleet growth rate of 3.72% expected over the next three years [2][3]. - In 2024, China's civil aviation passenger volume is expected to exceed 700 million, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, indicating a new cycle for air travel in the country [2][3]. - The demand for air travel is anticipated to steadily increase as the government implements policies to promote high-quality economic development [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fleet Growth and Supply Chain Impact - The growth rate of China's civil aviation fleet has decreased post-pandemic, with an average growth rate of 2.84% from 2020 to 2023, compared to 10.44% from 2010 to 2019. The fleet size increased from 3,903 aircraft in 2020 to 4,270 in 2023 [3][5]. - Global supply chain disruptions have affected the delivery capabilities of major aircraft manufacturers, with Boeing and Airbus experiencing significant declines in annual aircraft deliveries post-pandemic [3][6][10]. Future Passenger Volume and Airline Recommendations - The projected passenger volume for 2024 is approximately 741 million, which would be the first time it exceeds the 660 million recorded in 2019 [3][14]. - Investment opportunities are recommended in the following airlines: Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Juneyao Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Huaxia Airlines, as they are expected to benefit from the new cycle in aviation [2][3].