YTCO(600066) 中原证券·2024-12-13 08:58Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" investment rating for the company, indicating an expected relative increase of over 15% compared to the CSI 300 index within the next six months [3][6][15]. Core Views - The company has shown significant growth in sales, with November sales increasing year-on-year by 39.6% and month-on-month by 31.1% for large buses, and 13.7% and 16.0% for medium buses, respectively [3][6]. - The demand for new energy buses is expected to rise due to policy incentives, with an average subsidy of 60,000 yuan per vehicle for replacing old buses and 80,000 yuan for new energy city buses [3][6]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the new energy bus sector, with a market share of 14.5% in exports and a total of 8,844 new energy buses sold from January to November, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 64.0% [3][6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - The closing price of the company is 23.46 yuan, with a market capitalization of 51.939 billion yuan [3]. - The company achieved a total bus sales volume of 38,303 units from January to November, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.4% [3]. Financial Projections - Projected revenues for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 34.424 billion yuan, 39.864 billion yuan, and 46.521 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.47 yuan, 1.87 yuan, and 2.25 yuan [6][7]. - The expected PE ratios for the same years are 15.71, 12.32, and 10.23, respectively [6][7]. Sales Performance - The company reported a significant increase in light bus sales, with a month-on-month growth of 254.3% in November [3]. - The total sales of buses in November reached 4,665 units, with a notable increase in light bus exports, including a large order of 500 units to Latin America [3]. Industry Outlook - The report anticipates continued demand growth in the bus industry driven by the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan and the ongoing recovery of the tourism sector [3][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from the upward cycle in the industry, with a strong focus on expanding its overseas market presence [3][6].