Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with an expected adjusted PE of 15/13/11 times for 2024-2026 [1][61] Core Views - The company's 24Q3 revenue reached RMB 4.991 billion, a 51% YoY increase, exceeding guidance, with adjusted net profit of RMB 910 million, up 46.6% YoY [1] - Core OTA revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 4.013 billion, with a significant improvement in profitability, as the core OTA margin increased by 5.9 ppts YoY to 31.3% [1] - The company's user value has improved significantly, with ARPU growing 53% YoY to RMB 70, and GMV monetization rate increasing by 2.2 ppts YoY to 6.9% [1][56] - The company is accelerating its expansion into new traffic sources and international business, with the launch of the HopeGoo platform and the establishment of an overseas headquarters in Singapore [1][59] Business Performance Summary Core OTA Business - Accommodation booking revenue grew 22% YoY to RMB 1.38 billion in 24Q3, contributing 34.3% of OTA revenue, driven by increased room nights and improved net take rate [36][40] - Transportation ticketing revenue increased 21% YoY to RMB 2.03 billion, contributing 50.5% of OTA revenue, supported by growth in air ticket sales and improved monetization of train tickets [40][41] - Other OTA business revenue grew 24% YoY to RMB 610 million, mainly driven by hotel management and online travel business growth [41] Vacation Business - Vacation business revenue reached RMB 979 million in 24Q3, up 36% QoQ, achieving a break-even with a 2.4% profit margin [1][42] - The company has expanded its offline store network to over 900 stores by the end of 24Q3 [42] Profitability - The company's adjusted net profit margin improved by 2.7 ppts QoQ to 18.2% in 24Q3, driven by optimized user subsidies, improved international business efficiency, and reduced sales expenses [1][47] - Sales expense ratio decreased by 9.1 ppts YoY and 6.0 ppts QoQ to 29.4% in 24Q3 [1][47] User Metrics and Traffic Expansion - Average monthly paying users reached 46.4 million in 24Q3, up 5% YoY, with user purchase frequency exceeding 8 times per year, compared to 5.5 times in 2019 [1][56] - The company's app DAU surpassed 3 million before the 2024 National Day holiday, a record high, with app traffic contribution increasing from 4% to 8% between August 2023 and August 2024 [1][57] International Business Expansion - The company launched the HopeGoo international travel booking platform in mid-2024, covering six major travel categories and supporting 16 currencies [59] - Through the Yilong Hotel Technology platform, the company has expanded its international guest reception capabilities, with over 400 hotels capable of serving international guests as of July 2024 [59] Future Outlook - Core OTA revenue is expected to maintain double-digit growth in 24Q4, driven by strong performance in accommodation and transportation bookings [1][60] - The company's revenue for 2024-2026 is forecasted to be RMB 17.263 billion, RMB 20.195 billion, and RMB 23.134 billion, respectively, with adjusted net profit expected to reach RMB 2.74 billion, RMB 3.252 billion, and RMB 3.872 billion [1][61]
同程旅行：跟踪报告：用户价值持续提升，核心OTA利润率增长明显