CH AUTO(605018) 华源证券·2024-12-15 01:47Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its strategic initiatives and market positioning [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic automotive parts supplier with a comprehensive product system of "fasteners + welding parts + large aluminum castings." It has been deeply engaged in the automotive parts industry for over 30 years and has achieved significant breakthroughs with new energy customers since 2024 [5][30]. - The company is expanding its production capacity for high-strength fasteners and has entered the carbon-ceramic brake disc market, which is expected to contribute additional profit starting in 2025. The carbon-ceramic brake discs offer advantages such as high performance, lightweight, and durability, with a projected market size of 7.9 billion RMB in 2025 and 21.5 billion RMB by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 22% [5][39]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has established a product structure that includes fasteners, welding parts, and large aluminum castings, and it has a strong reputation in the automotive industry. It has developed production bases around four major automotive industry clusters to provide localized services [30][42]. Fasteners - The company has expanded its production capacity for high-strength fasteners, with an annual output exceeding 4 billion pieces. The gross margin for fasteners is positioned at an upper level within the industry. The entry into the carbon-ceramic disc market is expected to generate new revenue streams, with an initial production capacity of 200,000 sets per year, valued at over 1,000 RMB per vehicle [5][12][39]. Welding Parts - The company is also expanding its welding parts production capacity, focusing on lightweight aluminum die-casting. The revenue from welding parts has increased significantly, with a compound annual growth rate of 22% from 2016 to 2023. The company aims to meet the growing demand for lightweight automotive components [6][56]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 126 million RMB, 179 million RMB, and 224 million RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 43%, and 25%. The current price-to-earnings ratios are estimated at 40, 28, and 22 times for the same years [11][12].