2024年中央经济工作会议学习体会：更加积极有为，全方位扩大内需

Economic Overview - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 11-12, 2024, emphasized the need for a more proactive macroeconomic policy to expand domestic demand comprehensively[1] - The GDP growth rate for 2024 is projected to reach 5%, with a potential Q4 growth rate of around 5.5% if industrial production maintains a growth rate of approximately 5%[13] - Net exports contributed 1.1 percentage points to GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2024, indicating reliance on external demand[20] Policy Directions - The conference highlighted the importance of "five major coordinations" to balance market efficiency and government intervention, supply and demand, and new versus old growth drivers[15] - A more aggressive fiscal policy is anticipated, with expectations of a deficit rate increase to 3.5%-4% and the issuance of approximately 2 trillion yuan in special bonds[26] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential reductions in interest rates and reserve requirements to stimulate economic activity[27] Domestic Demand Expansion - The focus on expanding domestic demand has increased, with specific actions to boost consumption and investment, including raising basic pensions and enhancing financial support for low-income groups[34] - The "two new" policies, aimed at promoting consumption through trade-in programs, have already driven significant sales growth in appliances and automobiles, with sales exceeding 1 trillion yuan in 2024[35] Risk Management - The conference underscored the need to mitigate risks in the real estate market, with measures to stabilize prices and enhance housing supply through urban renewal projects[50] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly with the U.S., pose risks to external trade, potentially impacting GDP growth by 0.5-1 percentage points in 2025[48] Innovation and Competition - Emphasis was placed on technological innovation as a driver for new productivity, particularly in the artificial intelligence sector, which is projected to grow significantly by 2030[41] - The government aims to address "involution" in competition by regulating market behaviors and promoting fair competition across industries[43]