11月金融数据点评：实体经济的真实反馈比数据读数更重要

Economic Data Overview - In November, new social financing (社融) was 2.34 trillion yuan, below the expected 2.9 trillion yuan, and down 119.7 billion yuan year-on-year[2][4] - The year-on-year growth of social financing stock was 7.8%, slightly below the expected 7.9%[2][4] - New RMB loans in November were 522.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than the expected 920.8 billion yuan, and down 589.7 billion yuan year-on-year[5][4] Monetary Supply and Trends - M2 growth was 7.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from October[10] - M1 decreased by 3.7% year-on-year, but the decline rate narrowed by 2.4 percentage points compared to October[10] - M0 increased by 12.7% year-on-year, down 0.1 percentage points from October[10] Deposit and Loan Dynamics - Total new deposits in November were 2.17 trillion yuan, a decrease of 360 billion yuan year-on-year, influenced by declines in non-bank and resident deposits[12] - New loans totaled 580 billion yuan, with corporate loans down 572.1 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating weak demand from enterprises[13] - Resident medium- and long-term loans improved, reflecting a recovery in the real estate market[13] Policy Implications - The shift in monetary policy from "prudent" to "moderately loose" aims to stabilize the real estate and stock markets, with liquidity expected to be "ample" going forward[17] - The effectiveness of monetary policy in stimulating real economic growth remains uncertain, particularly regarding sustained financing demand from the real economy[17] Risk Factors - Global inflation is declining slowly, and the pace of economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S. is accelerating, posing risks to the domestic economy[18]