US Softlines Retail_UBS Evidence Lab inside_ China Online Sales Growth Rates Still Choppy

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies within the US Softlines Retail sector, indicating a positive outlook for their stock performance [351][356][361]. Core Insights - The growth rate of US brands' sales in China has decelerated significantly, with the Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) index for 27 US Softlines brands decreasing by 24% year-over-year in November, reflecting a 17,700 basis points deceleration month-over-month [10][32][44]. - On a two-year basis, the index showed a growth of 12%, but this also represented a deceleration of approximately 2,800 basis points month-over-month [44][44]. - Notable performers in November included Crocs and Canada Goose, which reported year-over-year GMV growth rates of 84% and 55%, respectively [10][11][55]. - Conversely, brands like Nike and Skechers experienced significant declines, with Nike's GMV decreasing by 63% year-over-year and Skechers by 66% [12][55]. Summary by Sections China Online Market Monitor - The UBS Evidence Lab's China Online Market Monitor tracks the online performance of major consumer brands, focusing on GMV, sales volume, and average selling prices on platforms like Tmall and Taobao [13][13]. Softlines Industry Gross Merchandise Value Index - The Softlines Industry GMV Index reflects a 24% year-over-year decline, indicating challenges in the market [32][32]. - The index's performance is heavily influenced by the sales trends of individual brands, with only 6 out of 27 brands showing growth [10][10]. Company Leaderboards - The report highlights the performance of various companies, with Crocs and Canada Goose leading in growth, while brands like Abercrombie & Fitch and Victoria's Secret faced substantial declines [11][11][55]. - The report provides detailed GMV growth rates for each brand, showcasing the stark differences in performance across the sector [11][11][55]. Time Series Data - Time series data for individual companies illustrates the fluctuations in GMV over recent months, emphasizing the volatility within the softlines retail sector [10][10][11]. Valuation and Financial Metrics - The report includes a valuation table for the companies covered, detailing market capitalization, price targets, and expected returns, which supports the investment ratings assigned [351][356][361].