Core Insights - The macroeconomic policy for 2024 will be more proactive and coordinated, focusing on stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [2][3] - The central economic work conference emphasizes maintaining stable economic growth, employment, and overall price stability by 2025 [2][3] - The report highlights the importance of promoting consumption as a key task for expanding domestic demand in 2024 [4] Industry Performance - The report indicates that the light manufacturing and comprehensive sectors are expected to perform well, with projected increases of 19.8% [5] - The banking sector is also expected to see a growth of 5.1%, while the real estate sector is projected to decline by 3.26% [5] Transportation Sector - The domestic civil aviation fleet has grown from 204 aircraft in 1990 to 4,270 in 2023, representing over 20 times growth [9][10] - The average growth rate of the fleet is expected to be 3.72% over the next three years, with passenger volume projected to exceed 700 million in 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [9][11][12] Real Estate Sector - The "Big Old Renovation" initiative will be a primary focus for the real estate industry in 2025, with an emphasis on urban village renovations and dilapidated housing [15][16] - The report estimates that the initial phase of urban village and dilapidated housing renovations could require an investment of approximately 1.45 to 2.11 trillion yuan [15] - The acquisition of idle land and unsold properties is highlighted as a key strategy for inventory reduction [16][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong positions in core first- and second-tier cities, as they are likely to benefit from market recovery [21][22] - Specific companies recommended for investment include China National Aviation, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines in the aviation sector, and several real estate firms in the property sector [12][22]
中银证券：中银晨会聚焦-20241216
中银证券·2024-12-16 02:21