万润新能：技术优势提振市场份额，一体化与出海布局助力长期成长

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Outperform" rating for the company [1][4][124]. Core Views - The actual controllers of the company have shown strong confidence in its long-term development by planning to increase their shareholding by an amount not less than 8.61 million yuan and not exceeding 17.21 million yuan within the next 12 months [3][4]. - The company has been deeply engaged in the lithium iron phosphate industry for many years and currently ranks among the top three globally in terms of shipment volume [4][7]. - The company is actively collaborating with leading clients and expanding its integrated layout and overseas production capacity, which will support long-term growth [5][4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 2003 and has focused on lithium iron phosphate and other cathode materials since its establishment in 2010. It has established partnerships with major battery manufacturers like BYD and CATL [4][7]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 12.35 billion yuan in 2022, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 324% from 2020 to 2022. The sales volume of lithium iron phosphate reached 92,200 tons in 2022, with a CAGR of 121% during the same period [16][17]. - In 2023, the company faced challenges due to a significant decline in lithium carbonate prices, leading to a revenue drop of 51% year-on-year in the first three quarters [17]. Market Position - The company ranks third in the global lithium iron phosphate market as of the first three quarters of 2024, with a market share of 24% [39]. - The company has a strong focus on high-performance products and has maintained stable supply capabilities, which has led to rapid sales growth alongside its clients [5][4]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of -6.47 billion yuan in 2024, followed by a recovery to 4.04 billion yuan in 2025 and 8.13 billion yuan in 2026. The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -5.13, 3.21, and 6.44 yuan for the respective years [5][124]. - The report estimates that the company's stock has a reasonable value range of 67.4 to 70.4 yuan, indicating a potential upside of 25% to 31% compared to its current price [5][124].