BOSS ZHIPIN(BZ) 东吴证券·2024-12-17 00:47Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for BOSS Zhipin (BZ) [1] Core Views - BOSS Zhipin's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 19% YoY to RMB 1.912 billion and adjusted net profit of RMB 739 million, up 4% YoY, exceeding Bloomberg consensus estimates [2] - The company expects Q4 2024 revenue to be between RMB 1.795-1.810 billion, representing a YoY increase of 13.6%-14.6% [2] - BOSS Zhipin repurchased USD 220 million worth of shares in 2024 [2] User Metrics and Market Trends - Q3 2024 MAU reached 58 million, up 30% YoY and 6% QoQ, hitting a record high [2] - Paid enterprise customers totaled 6 million in the 12 months ending September 30, 2024, up 22% YoY and 2% QoQ [2] - The ratio of job seekers to enterprise users improved QoQ, potentially shortening recruitment cycles and temporarily slowing enterprise customer payment growth [2] Blue-Collar Business Performance - Blue-collar recruitment revenue exceeded 38% of total revenue in Q3 2024, with manufacturing revenue up 45% YoY [3] - The "Hailuo Preferred" project saw a 45% QoQ increase in attracted enterprises and a 40% QoQ rise in contract value [3] - Large enterprise revenue grew over 30% YoY, with ARPU up 5% YoY and flat QoQ [3] Financial Performance and Projections - Q3 2024 adjusted operating profit was RMB 605 million, representing 31.7% of revenue [3] - Adjusted net profit margin was 38.7%, down 5.8% YoY due to higher tax rates [3] - 2024-2026 Non-GAAP net profit forecasts are RMB 2.6/3.2/4.1 billion, with corresponding Non-GAAP P/E ratios of 18/15/11x [4] Financial Ratios and Valuation - 2024-2026 ROE projections are 10.4%/12.8%/15.9% [10] - 2024-2026 gross margin forecasts are 83.3%/84.4%/84.9% [10] - 2024-2026 net profit margin estimates are 20.5%/25.5%/31.3% [10] - The stock closed at USD 14.58 with a market cap of USD 6.373 billion [4] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - 2024-2026 operating cash flow projections are RMB 2.974/4.352/4.548 billion [8] - 2024-2026 net cash increase forecasts are RMB 337 million/1.634 billion/1.711 billion [8] - Total assets are projected to grow from RMB 19.096 billion in 2024E to RMB 24.175 billion in 2026E [9]