建投能源：河北火电主力，受益于顶峰需求

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 6.41 [1][4][7] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from peak demand for thermal power, with its controlled and joint-venture power plants in Hebei set to expand their operational capacity [1][3] - Hebei's electricity consumption from January to October 2024 increased by 5.79% year-on-year, indicating a growing demand for power generation [3] - The company is projected to see a continuous increase in power generation due to its significant share in the Hebei power grid, which is crucial for meeting regional electricity needs [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price set at RMB 6.41, reflecting a positive outlook based on projected earnings growth [1][4][7] Operational Expansion - The company has sufficient incremental capacity in thermal power, with a coal-fired installed capacity of 10.45 million kilowatts as of June 2024 [2] - Several projects, including the second phase of Renqiu Thermal Power and the fourth phase of Xibaipo Power Plant, are under construction and expected to be operational by 2026 [2] Demand and Generation Growth - The peak demand for thermal power is expected to be pronounced, with the maximum load demand for Hebei's southern grid projected to increase by 2.2% to 4.3% year-on-year in winter 2024 [3] - The company's thermal power generation from January to October 2024 increased by 2.21% year-on-year, with average utilization hours also rising by 1.87% [3] - The company holds a significant share of 24.35% and 24.55% in the southern and northern Hebei grids, respectively, which supports its growth in power generation [3] Financial Projections - The company’s net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to grow significantly, with expected figures of RMB 556.82 million, RMB 715.05 million, and RMB 815.48 million for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][10] - The projected growth rates for net profit are +233%, +28%, and +14% for the respective years [4][10]