食品饮料行业2025年度投资策略：风险逐步释放，经营修复可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the food and beverage industry [5][8]. Core Insights - The report indicates that the risks in the liquor sector are gradually being released, with the potential for operational recovery in the food and beverage industry by 2025 [5][8]. - The white liquor sector is expected to see a bottoming out of fundamentals in 2024, with a decline in active fund positions, while the investment value of the sector is increasing from a dividend yield perspective [5][8]. - The mass consumer goods sector is experiencing weak demand in 2024, but the decline in raw material costs is greater than expected, leading to profit recovery for key companies [5][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Beverages - The white liquor sector is expected to see a gradual release of risks, with the investment value becoming more apparent [5][8]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector has underperformed the market, with a decline of 9.18% as of December 10, 2024, while the overall food and beverage index has decreased by 5.00% [22][5]. - The report highlights that the demand-driven growth of the white liquor industry is shifting towards supply-side dynamics, with significant room for concentration improvement [5][8]. 2. Mass Consumer Goods - The report anticipates that the mass consumer goods sector will see profit recovery in 2024, with a potential revenue turning point in 2025 [5][8]. - The report emphasizes that the decline in raw material costs is expected to continue, which will alleviate cost pressures for companies in the sector [5][8]. - The report suggests that the recovery of mass consumer goods companies will be driven by the implementation of consumption stimulus policies [5][8]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends actively positioning in core domestic assets, particularly in the white liquor sector, where the cycle is nearing a turning point [5][8]. - It suggests focusing on high-quality stocks related to mass dining, as the sector is expected to recover due to various stimulus measures [5][8]. - The report also highlights the importance of monitoring high-growth segments in the beverage industry, particularly those related to health and wellness [5][8].