明年市场展望

Economic Outlook - In the second half of 2024, positive policy changes are expected, leading to improved market liquidity and increased risk appetite, resulting in a rapid rebound in the A-share market[2] - The transition from liquidity-driven to fundamentals-driven market performance in 2025 will likely determine the overall market performance next year[2] - Economic recovery is expected to be more certain in the first half of 2024, with gradual improvement in corporate earnings, leading to relatively strong market performance[2] Risks and Challenges - Accumulation of overseas risk factors in the second half of 2024, such as re-inflation and increased tariffs, may impact the domestic market[2] - Major geopolitical changes could lead to a sharp shift in global market risk appetite[32] - The possibility of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts not meeting expectations could affect market dynamics[32] Investment Strategy - A balanced allocation strategy focusing on "small-cap style" and "dividend assets" is recommended for better cost-effectiveness[2] - The real estate sector is expected to stabilize, reducing its drag on the economy, with property price declines nearing average levels seen after overseas real estate crises[15] - Capital market liquidity is anticipated to remain ample, with M1 growth showing signs of improvement, supporting economic and market activity[15]