彭博：中国银行2021年以来首次上调房贷利率

Investment Rating - The report indicates a cautious investment outlook for the banking sector in China due to rising mortgage rates and ongoing challenges in the real estate market [1][9]. Core Insights - Chinese banks have raised new mortgage costs for the first time in three years, driven by a prolonged downturn in the real estate market and slowing economic growth [1][10]. - The average mortgage rate for first-time homebuyers in 42 major cities increased slightly from a historical low of 3.05% to 3.08%, marking the first rise since October 2021 [2][9]. - Despite recent sales recovery signs following stimulus measures, housing prices continue to decline, indicating persistent market challenges [3][4]. - The People's Bank of China has implemented measures to lower outstanding mortgage rates, aiming to reduce interest expenses for borrowers by approximately 206 billion USD annually [5][10]. - A significant number of cities have raised mortgage rates, with Wuhan, Changsha, and Wenzhou seeing the largest increases of 20 basis points [5][12]. - The banking sector is facing record low net interest margins, with a current level of 1.53%, which is below the threshold needed for reasonable profitability [7][10]. - Regulatory bodies are likely to guide banks to uniformly increase new mortgage rates to create a buffer for potential larger rate cuts in the future [11][12]. Summary by Sections - Mortgage Rate Changes: The report highlights the first increase in mortgage rates in three years, with specific data showing a rise from 3.05% to 3.08% in major cities [2][5]. - Economic Context: The ongoing downturn in the real estate market and its impact on the broader economy is emphasized, with sales showing signs of recovery but prices still falling [3][4]. - Banking Sector Challenges: The report discusses the challenges faced by banks, including low profitability and rising non-performing loans, with total profits only increasing by 0.5% in the first three quarters [7][10]. - Regulatory Actions: The report notes that regulatory measures are being taken to stabilize the banking sector, including potential guidance for uniform rate increases [11][12].