美联储12月议息会议点评：鹰派降息，明年降息节奏或调整

Interest Rate Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in December, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.5%[8] - This marks the third rate cut of the year, totaling a reduction of 100 basis points[47] - There was one dissenting vote against the rate cut, with Beth M. Hammack advocating for a pause instead[28] Economic Outlook - The Fed's dot plot indicates that only 2 rate cuts are expected in 2025, a decrease from previous expectations of 4 to 5 cuts[12] - The median GDP growth forecast for 2024 was revised up from 2% to 2.5%, while the unemployment rate is projected to decrease to 4.2%[13] - Inflation expectations were slightly adjusted upward, with the policy rate forecast for 2025 raised from 3.4% to 3.9%[13] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, U.S. stock markets declined, with the Nasdaq dropping 3.56%, the S&P 500 down 2.95%, and the Dow Jones falling 2.58%[58] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) increased, while gold prices fell[59] Liquidity and Balance Sheet - The Fed's balance sheet reduction continues at a pace of $25 billion in Treasury securities and$35 billion in MBS, with a total reduction of approximately $1.9047 trillion as of November 2024[13] - The current size of the Fed's securities holdings is about$6.6 trillion[13] Risks and Considerations - Risks include potential overheating of the U.S. economy and geopolitical uncertainties that could exceed expectations[13]