Wuhan Jingce Electronic (300567) 华西证券·2024-12-22 08:50Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 73.82 CNY and a total market capitalization of 20.241 billion CNY [12] Core Views - The company has secured a significant contract for core bright-field defect inspection equipment, demonstrating strong competitiveness in the semiconductor measurement sector [2] - Multiple policy incentives are driving the recovery of 3C consumer demand, with the display panel business continuing to improve [3] - The semiconductor measurement business has reached an inflection point, with new orders expected to accelerate due to BIS regulations and domestic substitution trends [13][26] Financial Performance and Projections - Revenue for 2023A is projected at 2,429 million CNY, with a YoY decline of 11.0%, but expected to grow by 22.9% in 2024E, 28.3% in 2025E, and 25.4% in 2026E [30] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 227 million CNY in 2024E, 347 million CNY in 2025E, and 533 million CNY in 2026E, with YoY growth rates of 51.4%, 52.8%, and 53.5% respectively [30] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 48% from 2023A to 2026E [30] - ROE is projected to increase from 4.1% in 2023A to 11.7% in 2026E [30] Industry and Market Analysis - The BIS new regulations are accelerating the substitution of imported measurement equipment, with the company's semiconductor orders showing a clear inflection point [13] - The 3C consumer market is expected to recover due to policy incentives, with AI-driven innovations in smartphones, AI glasses, and AI PCs likely to boost demand for display panels [28] - The domestic semiconductor measurement market is poised for growth, with the company's core products already covering 1xnm and above processes, and advanced process equipment receiving repeat orders [36] Key Developments - The company has won a bid for defect inspection and stress testing equipment for a 12-inch production line, with a total contract value of 120 million CNY [35] - The company has completed the delivery of advanced process bright-field defect inspection equipment and is actively developing other products such as patterned dark-field defect inspection equipment [36] Valuation and Outlook - The report maintains revenue forecasts of 2,985 million CNY for 2024E, 3,830 million CNY for 2025E, and 4,804 million CNY for 2026E, with corresponding EPS of 0.83, 1.27, and 1.94 CNY [37] - The current stock price of 73.82 CNY corresponds to a PE ratio of 89x for 2024E, 58x for 2025E, and 38x for 2026E, supporting the "Buy" rating [37]