基础化工行业生物柴油系列报告一：SAF元年前夕的三点思考

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the basic chemical industry, specifically focusing on sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) [33]. Core Insights - SAF is highlighted as the best method for aviation carbon reduction, with a potential lifecycle CO2 emission reduction of up to 85% compared to traditional jet fuel [9][44]. - The report outlines three key thoughts regarding SAF's importance, market space, and profitability, emphasizing the significant market potential driven by global climate policies [7][34]. Summary by Sections 1. SAF Environmental Value - SAF is a sustainable aviation fuel derived from second-generation hydrocarbon-based biodiesel (HVO), which has a lower freezing point and can significantly reduce carbon emissions [42][44]. - The production of SAF is flexible, utilizing various feedstocks such as waste oils, and it is compatible with existing aviation fuel infrastructure [44][68]. 2. Policy-Driven Demand Growth - The report identifies two major demand inflection points for SAF: the EU's mandatory blending starting in 2025 and the global implementation of the CORSIA mechanism in 2027 [34][62]. - By 2050, IATA predicts that SAF consumption could reach approximately 358 million tons, representing a market potential of around $752 billion at current prices [34][62]. 3. Price and Cost Dynamics - SAF prices have recently increased, reflecting tightening supply and demand dynamics, with current prices around$2,100 per ton [35][62]. - The profitability of SAF production is closely linked to yield improvements, with current main production processes achieving yields of about 70% [36][74]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in SAF production, including Hai Xin Neng Ke, Jia Ao Environmental Protection, and Peng Yao Environmental Protection, among others [12][36].