保险行业2025年度投资策略：严监管助力行业高质量发展

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the insurance industry [18]. Core Insights - The insurance industry is expected to experience high-quality development supported by strict regulations, with improvements in liability costs and underwriting profitability for property insurance companies [14][54]. - The insurance sector has shown significant absolute and relative returns, with the insurance index outperforming the CSI 300 index by 28.7% as of December 24, 2024 [7][14]. - The report highlights a positive outlook for both life and property insurance sectors, driven by favorable policies and market conditions [14][54]. Summary by Sections 1. Review: Strong Performance in Stock Prices and Earnings - The insurance index has risen by 44.8% compared to a 16.1% increase in the CSI 300 index, driven by improved asset conditions and better-than-expected earnings [7][25]. - Notable stock price increases for major insurers include New China Life (+70.9%), China Pacific Insurance (+47.7%), and China Life (+52.6%) [9][30]. 2. Life Insurance: "Stable Volume and Quality Improvement" Expected to Support NBV Growth - The new business value (NBV) for life insurance companies has shown strong growth, with notable increases in NBV margins due to product structure optimization and lower preset interest rates [11][54]. - The demand for savings-type insurance products remains strong, benefiting new business sales [55]. 3. Property Insurance: Leading Companies Expected to Improve Underwriting Profitability - The combined ratio (COR) for major property insurers remains below 100%, indicating profitability, with notable performance from Ping An Insurance and PICC [48][49]. - Regulatory tightening and increased disaster losses are expected to improve the competitive landscape for leading insurers [14][54]. 4. Investment: Importance of Asset and Liability Matching - The report emphasizes the need for insurance companies to enhance asset-liability matching, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment [19][21]. - Insurers are expected to increase allocations to bonds and high-dividend stocks to stabilize investment returns [21][54]. 5. Investment Recommendations: Maintain "Outperform" Rating for the Insurance Industry - The report suggests that the insurance sector's valuation remains at historically low levels, indicating potential for upward correction [14][54]. - Key stock recommendations include New China Life, China Life, China Pacific Insurance, and Ping An Insurance, based on their respective strengths in asset flexibility and liability management [54].