2025年宏观配置展望：欲度关山，一往无前

Group 1: Economic Trends - The overall economic structure in 2024 is characterized by supply-driven recovery, with actual GDP growth at 4.8% in the first three quarters[36] - Industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year in the first 11 months of 2024, while manufacturing investment rose by 9.3%[36] - Real estate investment declined by 10.4% year-on-year in the first 11 months, indicating weak domestic demand[36] Group 2: Real Estate Market - In November, the sales area of commercial housing in 30 cities showed an upward trend, with a year-on-year growth rate turning positive[30] - The cumulative sales area of commercial housing decreased by 14.3% year-on-year, which is worse than the previous year's decline of 8.5%[66] - The expected decline in real estate investment for 2025 is around -6.3%, an improvement from the -10.3% forecast for 2024[43] Group 3: Policy and Market Response - The policy shift since September 24 has increased expectations for demand support, leading to improvements in consumption and housing sales[38] - The anticipated fiscal deficit for 2025 is projected to exceed 12 trillion yuan, with significant allocations for infrastructure and real estate recovery[55] - Consumer retail sales are expected to grow by 4.8% in 2025, up from an estimated 3.5% growth in 2024[69] Group 4: External Factors - The export growth rate is expected to turn to zero or negative in 2025 due to increased trade friction risks and a lack of significant external economic upturn[47] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of cooling, with a slight increase in unemployment rates, which may impact global economic dynamics[61]