交通运输行业2025年年度策略：财政政策发力关注顺周期内需，贸易风险增加关注全球供应链重塑

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook for the transportation industry, particularly in the chemical shipping sector, indicating potential growth opportunities due to increasing demand from the petrochemical industry [4][8]. Core Insights - The chemical shipping capacity approved in 2023 and 2024 has decreased compared to 2022, with 33,500 dwt and 59,800 dwt approved respectively, down from 82,200 dwt in 2022 [4]. - The transportation of hazardous chemicals is primarily directed towards the petrochemical industry, with large refining enterprises being the main downstream customers [8]. - The report highlights that the chemical industry supply chain is crucial for maintaining the flow of the petrochemical sector, with significant waterway transportation demand generated from coastal refining bases [8]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the chemical industry chain's prosperity due to policy support aimed at boosting domestic demand [10]. Summary by Sections Chemical Shipping Capacity - The approved chemical shipping capacity has seen a decline, with significant reductions in new capacity compared to previous years [4]. - The average age of chemical ships has been analyzed, indicating a trend towards an aging fleet [3]. Petrochemical Industry Demand - The report emphasizes the importance of the petrochemical industry as a major driver for hazardous chemical transportation, detailing the supply chain from paraxylene (PX) to polyester products [8][10]. - The concentration of transportation categories is high, with the top ten hazardous chemicals accounting for 83.4% of the total transportation volume [10]. Market Trends and Economic Indicators - The report notes that the current price and inventory indicators in the chemical downstream industry are low, but anticipates a rebound in the industry due to favorable fiscal and monetary policies [10]. - The report provides insights into the growth of cargo throughput at major ports, with a year-on-year increase in both total and foreign trade cargo throughput [29]. Dividend and Investment Potential - The report highlights the attractive dividend yields of transportation companies, particularly in the highway and port sectors, as stable cash flows support dividend payments [35]. - The report indicates that the long-term decline in interest rates enhances the investment appeal of public transportation companies due to their monopolistic characteristics and stable cash flows [35].