宏观和大类资产配置周报：2025年初“政策组合拳”有望持续发力

Market Overview - The A-share index rebounded this week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.36%[25] - The bond market saw a slight decline in yields, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.69%[63] - The commodity futures index increased by 0.97%, driven by gains in grain and energy sectors[59] Economic Indicators - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises was CNY 66,674.8 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.7%[17] - The industrial production value increased by 5.4% year-on-year in November, indicating a slight recovery in production activity[17] - The GDP for 2023 was revised to CNY 129.4 trillion, reflecting a growth rate of 2.7%[21] Policy Outlook - The "policy combination" is expected to continue to support economic growth into early 2025, with a focus on expanding domestic demand[26] - The central economic work conference emphasized the importance of consumption and effective investment to stimulate economic recovery[26] - The government plans to implement a special action to boost consumption in 2025[26] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The recommended asset allocation order remains: Stocks > Commodities > Bonds > Currency[5] - The stock market is favored due to anticipated policy support, while bonds are expected to be under pressure from stock market performance[27]