农业周观点：年未猪价偏弱运行，粮食安全偏好拾升

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Increase" indicating that the growth level in the next six months is expected to be higher than the corresponding growth of the CSI 300 index [97][110]. Core Insights - As the year-end approaches, the supply pressure of live pigs is significant, leading to a weak price trend. The price of live pigs as of December 26 was 15.42 CNY/kg, a week-on-week decrease of 0.34%. The demand has slowed down as the stocking for the year-end nears completion, with slaughter volumes dropping by 6.65% [2][9]. - The recent Central Rural Work Conference emphasized food security, raising preferences for the seed industry, and highlighting investment opportunities in related sectors [9][39]. - The domestic animal health industry is expected to recover alongside improvements in farming operations, with historical data showing higher sales during profitable farming years. The industry is also seeing increased concentration due to the exit of underperforming companies [6][39]. Summary by Sections Livestock Industry - The price of live pigs is under pressure, with a notable decrease in slaughter volumes as the year-end approaches. The average price of live pigs is currently at 15.42 CNY/kg, reflecting a 0.34% decrease week-on-week [2][9]. - The overall supply of live pigs remains high due to previous production capacity, contributing to the weak price trend [2]. Grain and Food Security - The national grain production reached 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, marking a significant achievement in food security. The focus is on increasing grain yield and ensuring food safety [49][45]. - The Central Rural Work Conference has reiterated the importance of food security, prompting a shift in focus towards the seed industry and related investment opportunities [9][39]. Animal Health Sector - The animal health industry is poised for recovery as farming profitability improves. The concentration of the industry is increasing due to the exit of smaller players, benefiting larger companies with strong R&D capabilities [6][39]. - There is significant potential in the domestic market for animal health products, particularly in the pet medicine sector, which is expected to accelerate domestic substitution [6][39]. Seed Industry - The seed industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, with companies like Longping High-Tech and Da Bei Nong being recommended due to their advantages in biological breeding and superior varieties [8][39].