宏观周报（12月第4周）：11月工业企业利润降幅延续收窄趋势

Economic Overview - In November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 66,674.8 billion, a year-on-year decline of 4.7%[18] - The profit decline in November was -7.3%, improving from -10.0% in October[18] - The inventory growth rate continued to decline, with a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, down from 3.9% previously[18] Market Performance - The market experienced a contraction with an average weekly trading volume of CNY 13,791 billion, a decrease of CNY 1,439 billion week-on-week[23] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.95%, while the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.13%[23] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF dropped below 20%, closing at 18.72% last week[23] Profit Trends - The profit margin for November was 5.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.37 percentage points, with the decline expanding from -6.70% to -7.22%[32] - The industrial value-added growth rate in November was 5.4%, up from 5.3% in October, indicating a slight acceleration[32] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in November was -2.5%, an improvement from -2.9% in October, narrowing the decline by 0.4 percentage points[32] Investment Recommendations - It is suggested to maintain positions with a neutral to slightly long duration in the bond market due to short-term liquidity constraints and the potential for monetary easing[23] - The recommendation is to observe the upcoming December PMI data for further insights into economic recovery[18]